Editorial: Wellingtonians need to start thinking about the issues that matter to the city
For The Dominion Post, 24/03/2017
By John Milford, Chief Executive, Wellington Chamber of Commerce
It's been nearly four years since John Key said Wellington was "dying". He did recover well a few days later, saying "I should have said 'under sustained pressure' … I'm not suggesting that [it's dying] in the slightest.''
Nor is anyone else suggesting that, and the evidence is there. Everything is doing well: business, retailing (big new names in town), the hospitality, restaurant and café scene, the burgeoning education and IT sectors, record cruise ships and visitor numbers, new hotels and high rises.
Of course, there have been major hiccups.
Like the earthquake. Like people displaced from apartments and workplaces, businesses closed, and the huge challenges facing building and business owners to strengthen buildings and secure facades.
There are other big issues that need attention – water and electricity resilience, and transport bottlenecks, for starters.
That's the scene that will greet candidates in the battle for Wellington Central this year. It will involve the incumbent Labour MP, a co-leader of the Greens, and a National newcomer – two high-profile candidates and one out to make a mark – in a seat that has thrown up more than a few surprises down the years.
Labour's Grant Robertson is the most experienced. He first won the seat in 2008 with a 1900 majority but by 2014 had boosted that to 8267.
And while the National candidate was polling in comfortable second place over that time (albeit with a declining vote), the Greens candidate was a distant third and also dropping. In 2011, James Shaw inherited 5971 votes from the 2008 election, but by 2014 that had eroded to 5077.
Against this, first-time National candidate Nicola Willis will be working to further National's traditional strong showing.
National has always polled at least second (and held the seat between 1960 and 1981), but it's the rise in its party vote, along with that of the Greens', while Robertson has been increasing his personal popularity that's intriguing.
In fact, while Robertson's rise has been steady, his party's vote has been going backwards.
In 2008, National won the party vote by 345 over Labour, with the Greens a distant third. But three years later there was a big shift: while National increased its margin to 4225, it was the Greens beating Labour into second.
That trend continued in 2014, when the Greens cut nearly 1000 into National's party vote majority, with Labour dropping to nearly 5000 below what they got in 2008.
It's that sort of uncertainty that's set to make for a fascinating contest.
It would be a Richter-scale shock if Shaw or Willis were to get up over Robertson, but as far as the city is concerned I don't think it matters who wins.
One way or another, Robertson and Shaw will be back in the next Parliament. And Willis is likely to join them, with talk that National will give her a good spot on the list as it looks to boost its stocks of bright, young women.
That means that irrespective of the election's outcome, Wellington will have on tap the Finance spokesmen of two of the major parties, both with strong business credentials, and a former executive of our biggest company.
The Chamber doesn't take sides in politics, we just want our elected representatives to put the city and its people first.
In that regard, we will be making sure the big issues are well debated over coming months. We will be challenging our local candidates through the release of our election manifesto later this year and the hosting of a breakfast debate, and will expect clear and unequivocal responses.
Wellingtonians need to start thinking now about the issues that matter to them and the city. We're set for an interesting year.
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